Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#59
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.0#343
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#88
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 5.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.6% 5.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 11.1% 5.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.2% 43.0% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.1% 34.9% 11.1%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 10.5
.500 or above 92.2% 92.9% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 89.4% 73.6%
Conference Champion 13.6% 13.9% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 2.4%
First Four7.2% 7.3% 4.1%
First Round38.6% 39.5% 13.1%
Second Round20.2% 20.7% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 7.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.2% 0.5%
Final Four1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.7 - 2.60.7 - 2.6
Quad 1b1.1 - 1.61.8 - 4.1
Quad 23.2 - 2.45.0 - 6.6
Quad 37.1 - 2.212.1 - 8.8
Quad 49.4 - 0.721.5 - 9.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 304   McNeese St. W 79-62 97%    
  Nov 11, 2018 152   Utah Valley W 73-65 85%    
  Nov 14, 2018 93   @ New Mexico St. W 69-65 53%    
  Nov 19, 2018 144   Utah St. W 72-65 75%    
  Nov 21, 2018 21   Mississippi St. L 66-71 33%    
  Nov 24, 2018 77   Harvard W 67-65 67%    
  Nov 28, 2018 90   UC Irvine W 68-65 72%    
  Dec 01, 2018 198   California W 74-63 89%    
  Dec 04, 2018 299   Bethune-Cookman W 85-68 95%    
  Dec 07, 2018 92   New Mexico W 76-72 62%    
  Dec 10, 2018 143   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-66 82%    
  Dec 15, 2018 46   LSU L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 19, 2018 171   Bucknell W 76-67 85%    
  Dec 22, 2018 60   @ Western Kentucky W 72-71 40%    
  Dec 29, 2018 321   San Jose St. W 75-56 97%    
  Jan 03, 2019 137   @ San Francisco W 70-63 61%    
  Jan 05, 2019 63   BYU W 68-67 62%    
  Jan 12, 2019 165   @ Loyola Marymount W 74-65 69%    
  Jan 17, 2019 217   Santa Clara W 71-59 89%    
  Jan 19, 2019 121   San Diego W 70-64 77%    
  Jan 24, 2019 63   @ BYU W 68-67 41%    
  Jan 26, 2019 234   @ Pepperdine W 77-64 80%    
  Feb 02, 2019 137   San Francisco W 70-63 79%    
  Feb 07, 2019 168   Pacific W 73-64 84%    
  Feb 09, 2019 5   @ Gonzaga L 67-76 15%    
  Feb 14, 2019 217   @ Santa Clara W 71-59 77%    
  Feb 16, 2019 234   Pepperdine W 77-64 90%    
  Feb 21, 2019 168   @ Pacific W 73-64 69%    
  Feb 23, 2019 121   @ San Diego W 70-64 58%    
  Feb 28, 2019 241   Portland W 74-61 90%    
  Mar 02, 2019 5   Gonzaga L 67-76 30%    
Projected Record 21.5 - 9.5 10.7 - 5.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.9 5.0 3.6 0.9 13.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.5 10.5 10.0 3.4 32.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 7.7 7.6 3.4 0.3 22.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 5.4 3.9 1.0 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.3 0.2 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.8 5.3 7.7 10.8 14.0 15.3 15.1 13.3 8.4 3.6 0.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 3.6    2.9 0.7
14-2 59.5% 5.0    2.8 2.1 0.0
13-3 22.2% 2.9    0.9 1.7 0.3 0.0
12-4 6.9% 1.0    0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 7.8 5.2 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 2.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 3.6% 98.6% 37.2% 61.4% 4.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
14-2 8.4% 93.5% 25.4% 68.1% 6.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 91.3%
13-3 13.3% 77.3% 18.7% 58.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.0 72.1%
12-4 15.1% 58.9% 13.6% 45.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2 52.4%
11-5 15.3% 39.7% 11.7% 28.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.2 31.8%
10-6 14.0% 21.4% 7.0% 14.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 15.5%
9-7 10.8% 9.8% 5.5% 4.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.7 4.6%
8-8 7.7% 4.9% 3.5% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 1.4%
7-9 5.3% 2.5% 2.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.3%
6-10 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-11 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
4-12 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.6
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 42.2% 12.3% 29.9% 8.4 0.5 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.1 4.1 4.8 6.4 7.6 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 57.8 34.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 35.2 63.7 1.1